Retired German General: “Weapons delivery means that the war will be needlessly extended“
Summary of General Harald Kujat’s interview with Zeitgeschehen im Fokus
Recently I stumbled upon on interview in the Swiss publication Zeitgeschehen im Fokus with Harald Kujat, retired German general of the Luftwaffe and former Chairman of the NATO military committee. General Kujat has long been critical of NATO’s actions with regard to the conflict in Ukraine, and as such, he regularly draws the ire of German media. The interview itself was conducted in January and covers some topics that are now already a few weeks old. Even though the interview is now slightly outdated, Kujat offers a unique perspective about Germany’s overall role in this conflict, and since the interview is only available in German, I wanted to provide readers with a summary of the general’s main points.
Media Matters
Kujat starts off lamenting the state of German media. The war in Ukraine is unique because not only is it a military conflict, but also an economic and information war. One becomes a participant in the information war “if one adopts information and arguments that one can neither verify nor judge on the basis of one's own competence,” something that has become very problematic in Germany. Mainstream German media pays little attention to how the Russo-Ukraine war affects Germany’s security interests, instead filling their pages with opinions from “experts” who have very little experience or knowledge of national security or military strategy.
Kujat illustrates the media’s incompetence by recounting how early negotiations between Russia and Ukraine appeared promising, only to get hijacked by the West, as evidenced by Boris Johnson reportedly intervening before any agreements were signed. German media was silent about how those negotiations fell apart, leaving the populace completely blind to what occurred.
German Relations with the U.S., NATO, and Russia
The discussion then shifts toward German strategy and defense, as well as how the country should view the actions of the United States and Russia. Kujat has long been critical of Germany’s defense strategy, pointing out how in 2011, the government carried out a military reform that would shift military focus toward foreign missions instead of national defense. The justification for the reform was that there was no risk of a conventional attack on Germany and the NATO-alliance. Military resources could therefore be utilized for stabilization missions in foreign lands at the discretion of politicians. Kujat argues that not only is this a poor strategy in general, but that the assessment of the situation at the time in 2011 was faulty due to changes in Russo-American relations.
… the unilateral termination of the ABM Treaty by the U.S. had already created a strategic turning point in relations with Russia in 2002. The political turning point was the NATO summit in Bucharest in 2008, when U.S. President George W. Bush tried to push through an invitation to Ukraine and Georgia to join NATO. When he failed in this, a vague prospect of accession for these countries was included in the communiqué, as is usual in such cases.
Even though Ukraine is the one fighting for their sovereignty, some politicians have argued that German freedom is at stake in the Ukraine war and therefore it is critical to send weapons to Ukraine. Kujat sees this view as being nonsensical. It is clear that the two main players in the conflict are Russia and the United States. Ukraine’s fight for sovereignty essentially carries out the geopolitical interests of the U.S., which are to weaken Russia military, politically, and economically so that the U.S. can turn its focus onto its most threatening rival: China.
Russians of course worry about their own security interests, which are primarily threatened by the superiority of the United States in the region. Ukrainian membership in NATO, stationing of American troops, relocation of military infrastructure, joint NATO exercises, and the deployment of anti-ballistic missile systems in Poland and Romania are all viewed as some form of threat to Russian security.
These perceived threats comprise some of the main reasons that Russia invaded Ukraine in the first place. Additionally, there was the failure by the West and Ukraine to ensure the carrying out of the Minsk II agreements, in which Kiev would recognize the autonomy of the Donbass region.
Arms Delivery
General Kujat then provides a detailed explanation for why the delivery of German tanks to Ukraine is unlikely to help in any meaningful way.
Weapon systems have strengths and weaknesses based on technical characteristics and thus - depending on the training level of the soldiers as well as the respective operational framework - have a certain operational value. In combined arms combat, different weapon systems interact in a joint command system, whereby the weaknesses of one system are offset by the strengths of other systems. When the level of operator training is low, or when a weapon system is not deployed in coordination with other systems, and possibly when operational conditions are difficult, the operational value is low. Thus, there is a risk of early elimination or even the risk of the weapon falling into the hands of the enemy. This is the current situation in which modern Western weapon systems are being used in the Ukraine war. In December, Russia began an extensive program to evaluate the technical and operational-tactical parameters of captured Western weapons, which should increase the effectiveness of its own operational command and weapon effects.
Additionally, the military goals of Ukraine do not align with the means provided to them. Zelensky regularly changes strategies, and currently insists on driving Russians from all Russian occupied territory, including Crimea. NATO does not seem unified in supporting these efforts. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has stated his nation’s intentions to help Ukraine reach this goal, but the United States has not emphasized that Ukraine ought to take back Crimea. Regardless, the means (weapons) provided as of mid-January to the Ukrainians could not help them reach their goal anyways, as the U.S. has been delivering defensive weapons and wants to avoid combined arms combat, as well as a nuclear escalation.
Even if NATO nations were to provide sufficient weapons systems, there is still the question of whether the Ukrainian army would have the personnel to deploy them. Judging by the tragic fact that they are suffering high casualties, it seems that the Ukrainians are not in a position to effectively deploy any received weapons systems in a way that would help them reach their military goals. Instead, any weapons systems deliveries would only serve to needlessly extend the war and expose Germany to Russia.
Kujat echoes the sentiment from General Mark Milley that Ukraine has essentially accomplished all that they can and that reconquering Russian occupied land is not feasible. The goal should be to protect territory currently under Ukrainian control.
But this raises the question: What is the point of delivering weapons, if they cannot help Zelensky reach his goals?
Kujat advises the German government to be open with the constituency about what weapons delivery entails.
The Grundgesetzt (Basic Law) contains in its preamble a strict commandment of peace for our country. The Grundgesetzt thus tolerates support for a warring party only if it is suitable for facilitating a peaceful solution. The German government therefore has a duty to explain to the German population within what limits and with what objective its support for Ukraine is being provided.
Moving Forward
General Kujat states repeatedly throughout the interview that a negotiated peace will only be more difficult as the war carries on. The challenge of fighting in winter months have resulted in what is currently a stalemate, which provides a unique opportunity to open up negotiations. Unfortunately, Germany and other NATO countries are doing precisely what they should not be doing: escalating the conflict by delivering weapons systems to Ukraine.
Note:
As we now know, the German government has largely ignored the advice of General Kujat, and is planning on delivering tanks to Ukraine. Unfortunately, this is likely going to drag the war out even further.
Very informative article, thanks for writing it!